RECURSION PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (RXRX)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Revenue of $19.22M beat Wall Street consensus ($15.38M), while EPS of -$0.41 missed (-$0.35), reflecting higher R&D and G&A from Tempus data usage and Exscientia integration; net loss was $171.9M . Results vs estimates: revenue beat and EPS miss based on S&P Global consensus data for Q2 2025*.
• Management highlighted progress on platform and pipeline: Sanofi collaboration hit a $7M milestone (fourth in 18 months) and internal programs REC-1245 (RBM39) and REC-617 (CDK7) advanced with refined patient selection .
• Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were $533.8M at quarter-end; expected cash runway extended to Q4 2027 (from mid-2027 in Q1) .
• The call focused on Recursion OS 2.0, including Boltz-2 with MIT/NVIDIA, iterative dry/wet lab loops, and leveraging multi-omic/real-world data to stratify patients in oncology .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Bold revenue beat vs consensus: $19.22M vs $15.38M, driven by collaboration revenue; revenue beat *.
• Platform and AI progress: Boltz-2 open-source model approaching FEP accuracy at >1,000x speed; >40,000 downloads; OS 2.0 integrating diverse cell types and ClinTech data sources to improve program execution .
• Partner momentum: $7M Sanofi milestone in immunology (fourth discovery milestone in 18 months); Roche/Genentech neuromaps and GI-oncology phenomaps expanding; Bayer precision oncology programs advancing to lead series .
• Quote: “State of the art platform capabilities helped us drive our fourth partnered discovery milestone with Sanofi this quarter… accelerate and improve our funnel of new programs… execution of later stage programs like RBM39 and CDK7.” — Chris Gibson, CEO .

What Went Wrong

• EPS miss: -$0.41 vs -$0.35 consensus, reflecting higher OpEx; net loss widened YoY to $171.9M (vs $97.5M) *.
• R&D expense increased to $128.6M (vs $73.9M YoY), including $22.7M non-cash Tempus data usage; G&A rose to $46.7M (vs $31.8M) driven by Exscientia integration .
• Operating loss of -$176.2M and negative gross profit implied by cost of revenue exceeding total revenue; restructuring costs expected to total $9.3M in 2025 (with $3.9M paid in Q2) .
• Analysts focused on OpEx trajectory and the balance between pipeline acceleration and cash burn, given persistent losses despite revenue beats .

Financial Results

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Note: Margin disclosure (gross/operating margin %) not directly provided; loss from operations was $(176.23)M in Q2 2025 .

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “The power of our platform… gives us insights on patient populations to target… deploying advanced models like Boltz-2… our fourth partnered discovery milestone with Sanofi… leverage Recursion OS to accelerate programs like RBM39 and CDK7.” — Chris Gibson, CEO .
• “REC-1245… mimics CDK12 loss… strong activity in tumors with replication stress and DNA repair vulnerabilities… DAHLIA trial now enrolling. For REC-617… selected platinum-resistant ovarian cancer as the first combination cohort.” — Najat Khan, Chief R&D & Commercial Officer .
• CFO perspective (prior quarter, relevant to OpEx trajectory): “We have been able to significantly lower costs without cutting important platform capabilities… decreasing overall capacity… expected cash burn 2025 ≤ $450M.” — Ben Taylor, CFO .
• Call framing on OS 2.0, Boltz-2, and iterative dry/wet cycles for discovery through clinical development .

Q&A Highlights

• Revenue beat vs EPS miss: Analysts probed OpEx drivers (Tempus non-cash data expense, Exscientia integration) and sustainability of collaboration revenue cadence .
• Cash runway and burn: Clarifications on runway extension to Q4 2027 and expectations for 2025 cash burn excluding partnering inflows (maintained guidance) .
• Pipeline specifics: Focused questions on REC-617 combination strategy in platinum-resistant ovarian and biomarker strategy for REC-1245; management emphasized causal AI modeling and multi-omic profiling to identify responsive subgroups .
• Partner programs: Timing and conversion of Sanofi/Roche/Genentech projects to development candidates; management reiterated near-term milestone potential and neuromap expansion .

Estimates Context

• Q2 2025 results relative to S&P Global consensus: Revenue $19.22M vs $15.38M consensus (beat); EPS -$0.41 vs -$0.353 consensus (miss); 6 estimates for each metric *.
• Implications: Collaboration revenue trajectory likely raises near-term revenue expectations; OpEx trajectory (Tempus non-cash expense, integration) may pressure EPS estimates until cost reductions and synergies are fully realized .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Near-term: Collaboration-driven topline can surprise to the upside; trade the spread between revenue beats and EPS misses—stock may react favorably to revenue growth but fade on persistent losses if OpEx remains elevated .
• Medium-term: Runway extended to Q4 2027 gives time to execute pipeline and partner milestones (> $100M potential by end-2026), reducing financing overhang .
• Execution focus: Watch REC-617 combo cohort in platinum-resistant ovarian and REC-1245 DAHLIA biomarker-led enrollment; multi-omic and causal AI may enhance probability of clinical signal .
• Cost discipline: Track 2025 cash burn vs ≤$450M guide and restructuring cost execution ($9.3M) for OpEx normalization post integration .
• Platform edge: OS 2.0/ Boltz-2 and ClinTech integrations are strategic differentiators—evidence of patient stratification success could be a key rerating catalyst .
• Partner conversion: Monitoring Sanofi and Roche/Genentech program advancement to lead series/option exercises is critical for milestone cash flows and validation .

Additional References:

• Q2 2025 press release and financials: .
• SEC 8-K 2.02 (exhibits incl. press release and L(earnings) deck): .
• Company IR press release (web): .
• Globenewswire press release: .
• Q1 2025 press release for trend/guidance: .
• Q4 2024 press release for trend: .